Warren Buffett was once quoted as saying: “Look at market fluctuations (volatility) as your friend rather than your enemy.”
While he was talking about markets in general, Buffett who is also known as the Sage of Omaha, could well be talking about volatility in the forex markets. Market fluctuations can indeed be your friend when forex trading online in the global market. But you have to know how to harness it and make it work in your favour.
In simple terms, volatility refers to the price fluctuations of assets. It measures the difference between the opening and closing prices over a certain period of time.
For example, a currency pair that fluctuates between 5-10 pips is less volatile than a forex pair that fluctuates between 50-100 pips.
If you look closely you can see that some currencies and currency pairs are more volatile than others. You must have heard of the term ‘safe haven’ which refers to some currencies like the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the US dollar (to a certain degree).
So, depending on your trading style, strategy, and trading preferences, you can always find a currency pair that will suit your trading technique. While some traders prefer volatile markets, others might not like the high risk that comes with high volatility.
To understand the relationship between market liquidity and volatility, you first need to understand what liquidity is.
Liquidity is a measure of how quickly/easily you can buy or sell something in the market. If you wish to buy 100 ounces of gold, there must be a market participant who is willing to sell this amount of gold to you.
In highly liquid instruments, this is not an issue. You could execute a EUR/USD trade worth 10 Million during the London market session without any difficulties and without moving the market. Timing is important though, as currencies might be less liquid during specific sessions.
For example, if you decided to execute that EUR/USD trade between the close of U.S. trading and prior to the Tokyo opening, you might find that the liquidity is not that great and you could end up with a worse execution than you anticipated.
Generally speaking, the more liquid a trading instrument is, the lower the volatility, as it takes much more to move it in a certain direction. To significantly move the US bond market or the EUR/USD currency pair in one direction, it would take a massive transaction.
On the other hand, it would take much less effort to move one of the emerging market currencies - such as the Mexican Peso or South African Rand. Those currencies tend to be more volatile for that particular reason.
Quoting Warren Buffett again, he said: “All time is uncertain. It was uncertain back in 2007, we just didn't know it was uncertain.”
The fact is uncertainty, volatility, fluctuations, or whatever you call the range of price movement – are all intrinsic parts of trading the markets.
No volatility means there are no price movements. And without price movement, it will be impossible to have any trading activity.
The thing to keep in mind is that a certain level of volatility is needed for markets to operate efficiently. The challenge for traders though is when volatility becomes too high.
As a forex trader, you need to be aware of which currencies are more volatile than others and when volatility is rising.
Given the nature of the current global markets – interconnected trades, seamless flow of information and communication, and the prevalence of social media and digital technology – market pundits agree that market volatility is very much in every trader’s mind these days more than in any other period of time.
Let’s look at some of the factors that cause volatility that can affect your forex trading.
Wars (military invasions), uprisings, riots, and other forms of civil unrest count as one of the major causes of volatility. This is because while a certain level of volatility is needed in the markets, a prolonged and high level of uncertainty (in the case of wars and uprisings) is not good for traders’ sentiment and the market in general.
Whether it’s the US vs China, the US vs Europe, or any other region or country, trade wars can also spur volatility in the markets due to the billions or trillions of transactions involved. One way or another, the currencies involved in any trade war will be affected at some stage.
Central banks across the globe play an important role in managing the flow of money. They can regulate the amount of money in circulation via interest rate levels. It’s no wonder that every forex trader is keeping an eye on central bank decisions – whether it is the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Bank of Canada (BoC) or the Australian Reserve Bank (ARB).
It is a fact that market movements are driven by the people behind them. Traders and investors around the world make markets move. And depending on the prevailing sentiment – positive or negative – market volatility can fluctuate.
There are some currency pairs that are more volatile than others. Check out some of the most volatile currency pairs below and find out what makes them see larger fluctuations.
The AUD/JPY currency pair is seen as a risk barometer. The Australian Dollar is seen as a risk-on currency, meaning it will be in demand when risk appetite is high. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen is a traditional safe haven and will catch a bid during times when the markets are in a "risk-off" mode. This makes AUD/JPY a volatile currency pair - i.e. it will rise when traders are feeling optimistic and seeking risk and fall when traders are turning risk-averse.
The British Pound cross rates tend to be the most volatile ones among the major currencies. The Canadian Dollar is another "risk-on" currency and is heavily influenced by the direction of the oil price, as Canada is a major oil producer. If markets move into "risk-off" mode and at the same time, oil prices are falling, the Canadian Dollar could come under significant pressure. On the other hand, the currency tends to thrive during times when traders are seeking risk and commodity prices are rising as well.
The Turkish Lira can see significant price swings at times, which are driven by geopolitics but also due to the unpredictability of the country's central bank and the influence of politics on its course.
Knowing the inherent nature of volatility and the factors behind it, how can you use it in your favour? How can you harness volatility in your forex trading?
If you heed Warren Buffett’s word and look at market volatility as your friend rather than an enemy, there must be ways to make it work for you and your trading success.
There are a number of technical indicators that are suited to analysing volatility in the market. Find some of the most common volatility indicators below:
Average True Range: The average true range indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder Junior. The ATR calculates a "true range" and displays it as a 14-day exponential moving average of that particular range. The true range is the highest value of one of the following three equations:
A higher ATR reading indicates higher volatility.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands were developed by John Bollinger. This volatility indicator shows whether prices are high or low on a relative basis. Bollinger bands consist of three lines - the lower, middle, and upper bands. The middle band is simply a moving average. The upper and lower bands are positioned on either side of the MA and are calculated as 2 standard deviations above/below the MA.
A narrowing of the bands indicates low volatility, while a widening hints at increased volatility.
Volatility is one of the most important concepts to know when trading the financial markets. It's also a term that may be tossed around by investors without understanding what it means and how volatile markets actually work. By reading this article, you now know exactly how volatility works and how to trade it successfully!
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This information is not to be construed as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product, or instrument; or to participate in any trading strategy. It has been prepared without taking your objectives, financial situation, or needs into account. Any references to past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. Axi makes no representation and assumes no liability regarding the accuracy and completeness of the content in this publication. Readers should seek their own advice.
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