Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions for 2024-2050

Cryptocurrencies /
Alex Macris

In this article, we explore the key factors that have historically influenced bitcoin's price, such as on-chain metrics, market psychology, and macroeconomic conditions, as well as its historical price performance, highlighting its volatile yet fascinating journey since 2009.

We shift focus to future price predictions, providing views from various credible and respected financial sources and analysts, each with their own take on bitcoin's potential value, starting from the year 2024 up to 2050. This comprehensive overview includes popular indicators used by analysts to assess the performance of this leading currency in the novel crypto asset class.

Forecasting the value of a specific asset and its respective market is critical for traders and investors to make informed decisions and prevent economic losses. This is a speculative endeavour—not only do price prediction methods have their limitations and their inherent inaccuracies, but in the case of crypto, the issue is compounded by the fact that even the oldest of cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, has only been around since 2009, thus lacking the vast historical data backing the predictions of assets like gold or silver, which have been used as currencies for thousands of years.

To get the most out of the predictions that follow, whether they are based on fundamental, technical, or on-chain data, it is necessary to understand a few key concepts related to Bitcoin.

 

The blockchain

The Bitcoin blockchain functions as a transparent and decentralised ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions. It is maintained by a global network of computers (or nodes). Each transaction is added to a block, and each block has a finite number of transactions with a unique code called a hash, which is used to verify the data's integrity and authenticity. Blocks are linked together to form the blockchain.

New transactions are validated and added to the blockchain through a ‘mining’ process in which miners use computational power to solve complex problems. Miners receive newly generated bitcoins and transaction fees as a reward for their efforts and resources.

 

Scarcity and the halving cycle

Bitcoin’s code specifies a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins. Its fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins makes bitcoin a deflationary asset, often compared to gold, a precious metal with limited supply. This scarcity is reinforced by the ‘halving cycle,’ in which the incentive granted to Bitcoin miners is slashed in half every 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin's block rewards have successively decreased from 50 bitcoins per block to 25, 12.5, and 6.25 bitcoins per block. Following this pattern, in April 2024, the block reward will halve again to 3.125 bitcoins per block.

This is how bitcoin is issued and enters circulation. Unlike traditional fiat currencies, which can be printed by the central bank indefinitely and may cause inflation, the reduction in supply growth enforces scarcity.

Source

 

On-chain metrics

The transparent nature of the blockchain provides participants with the ability to monitor and even have a copy of all executed transactions on their own node. This has given rise to a new type of analysis, as ‘on-chain’ metrics provide analysts with a nearly real-time view of network activity, straight from the blockchain. These activities include coin movement between wallets, transaction volume over a given period, the number of new addresses and transactions, changes in the computing power dedicated to securing the network (hash rate), miner activity, and the transaction fees users are willing to pay.

These fundamental insights into bitcoin’s usage can indicate potential trends or patterns that could influence future price movements.

 

What affects Bitcoin's price?

Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset with tremendous volatility, affected by supply and demand. The limited supply of 21 million coins is expected to drive up the price as demand for the asset grows.

The adoption and recognition of bitcoin as a store of value and payment method have a substantial impact on its price. Increased acceptance by individuals, companies, and institutional investors has the potential to raise demand and prices. Increased liquidity and legitimacy can result from institutional engagement, which frequently supports higher valuations.

The halving event, known for its historical correlation with the price of bitcoin, is widely regarded as the main long-term catalyst influencing its value. The predictable event reduces new supply and leads to a shock, which influences scarcity-driven price dynamics. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the halving cycle continues to be a focal point for traders and analysts, significantly contributing to bitcoin's volatility.

Market psychology also plays an important role. Positive news, endorsements from prominent figures, or regulatory changes can drive bullish sentiment and price increases, whereas negative news or crackdowns can lead to adverse sentiment and price declines.

While tight controls might lead to uncertainty and market volatility, regulatory developments and legal frameworks relevant to the use and trading of bitcoin can promote confidence and stability.

Technological advances can improve security, scalability, or functionality, influencing the perceived value of bitcoin.

Finally, in times of economic instability, macroeconomic variables such as inflation fears, currency depreciation, and geopolitical tension may drive investors to bitcoin as a hedge or safe-haven asset, thus driving up its price.

 

Historical price performance

Lowest and highest prices yearly, since 2009

Year

Lowest Price (USD)

Highest Price (USD)

Average Price* (USD)

2009

0.00 0.00099 0.00099

2010

0.01 0.39 0.06

2011

0.29 32 5.27

2012

4 16 7.38

2013

13 1163 198

2014

310 936 525

2015

172 465 272

2016

351 981 567

2017

784 19,892 4,128

2018

3,217 18,343 7,558

2019

3,401 13,017 7,343

2020

3,850 29,096 11,641

2021

29,796 68,789 43,958

2022

18,490 47,835 32,663

2023

16,500 44,750 25,787

* Calculated by taking the sum of the daily closing prices and dividing it by the number of days in the year.

 

Previous cycles highs and lows

Cycle

High

Low

Pullback %

1st

1,163 160 -86%

2nd

20,000 3,200 -84%

3rd

69,000 15,500 -77%

 

Bitcoin's historically volatile performance has been characterised by market cycles in which the asset appreciated significantly, albeit with diminishing returns, prior to retracing up to 80% from its previous all-time high (ATH).

In 2009, the pair's first reported exchange rate was $0.00099. Bitcoin's acceptance began to pick up steam in 2011, and its value topped $1.

Following the initial halving in November 2012, prices surged from roughly $11 to over $1,100 in a year, representing returns of over 9,000%. The price subsequently reached a cycle low of $160 in early 2015, down 86% from the all-time high.

The second halving occurred in July 2016, and BTC rose over 3,000%, from $600 to around $20,000, by the end of 2017. In December 2018, BTC was trading at around $3,200, down 84% from its all-time high.

Following the halving in 2020, bitcoin soared from $8,000 to nearly $69,000 in April 2021, signifying a 650% rise. At the peak of the 2021 bull run, the leading cryptocurrency's market capitalisation temporarily topped at $1.25 trillion. By November 2022, BTC had fallen 77% from its all-time high of almost $15,000.

Volatility is often a source of criticism of the crypto market, especially from proponents of the traditional, centralised financial system. Volatility, however, is a necessary feature in emerging markets, acting as a catalyst for improvement and transformation, ultimately leading to market maturity. Bad players and organisations with unsound business models are driven out during each consecutive crypto winter, making room for the rest. Those who remain active during the slump may emerge as market leaders in the following cycle, like the survivors of the 2000 Dotcom bubble, such as Amazon and eBay.

 

The current state of Bitcoin

As of January 2024, bitcoin's year-over-year gains exceed 150%. Bitcoin breached the crucial psychological threshold of $40,000, a level not seen since April 2022, and is now testing it as support. Previously, the level served as support during the start of the bear market and as a local high when the Terra ecosystem collapsed.

Outflows from exchanges into private custody have lowered amounts held on exchanges to their lowest levels since 2018, implying strong demand for BTC driven by spot accumulation. Long-term holders own 75% of the supply. In addition, there has been a decline in stable coin assets from institutions in recent months, indicating that they prefer to invest capital as optimistic sentiment is rising.

Bitcoin-related shares, like those of the Coinbase exchange, analytics and business intelligence company MicroStrategy, and bitcoin mining firms, have surged beyond bitcoin itself, showcasing independent movement from other Nasdaq tech stocks. These stocks offer exposure to the asset class, attracting even those not actively engaged in crypto.

The previous cycle saw the demise of the major centralised exchange FTX, the failure of lending platforms (such as Celsius) and crypto custodians, the liquidation of cryptocurrency hedge funds (Three Arrows Capital), and the implosion of the Terra (Luna) ecosystem, which wiped out $60 billions of investor funds in a matter of hours.

The prosecution of figures who had cast a shadow over the crypto sector in the previous cycle resonated positively with retail and institutional investors. The convictions of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, the extradition of Terra founder Do Kwon, the arrest of Three Arrows' Su Zhu, and the coerced plea deal agreement of Binance's CZ are emblematic of regulatory advancements in a space previously stigmatised as the “wild west.”

After surviving and emerging stronger from a number of these cycles of ups and downs, mainstream investors’ views of Bitcoin have improved, and it is decreasingly associated with criminal uses, illegal activities, and fraud. A more regulated crypto sector may eventually lead to worldwide adoption, less volatile markets, and more capital inflows.

Today, wealth managers can advise their clients that allocating to bitcoin is necessary for a well-balanced portfolio, unlike earlier cycles plagued by stories of shady magic internet money that kept investors at bay. While the bulk of investors may not engage with crypto wallets, the complexities of self-custody, or even involvement with crypto exchanges, they have come to require exposure to the asset class through institutionalised mechanisms that provide them with peace of mind and ease.

As a result, potential inflows into the market in the coming years could be significant. While historical trends provide insights, predicting exact percentages remains speculative and uncertain.

 

Bitcoin price predictions 2024-2050

Source / Year

2024

2025

2030

2040

2050

Bitwise

$80,000 * * * *

Bitmex

$1,000,000 * * * *

Coincodex

$29,564 - $100,732 $59,986 - $177,384 $138,583 - $267,124 $1,510,000 *

BitQuant

$69,000 $250,000 * * *

VanEck

$48,000 $160,000 * * *

Coinpedia

$81,008 $61,357 - $140,449 (avg. $95,903) $277,751 - $347,783 (avg. $312,767) * *

Robert Kiyosaki

$120,000 * * * *

Adam Back (Blockstream CEO)

$100,000 * * * *

Techopedia

$80,000 $21,500 - $98,000 (avg. $50,000) $95,000 - $120,000 (avg. $110,000) * *

Standard Chartered

$120,000 * * * *

Stock-to-Flow Model (PlanB)

$49,750 - $185,000 $185,000 - $448,000 * * *

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

$20,060 - $331,580 (avg. 175,820) $28,630 - $440,730 (avg. 234,680) $127,140 - $1,467,000 (avg.797,070) * *

Mike McGlone (Bloomberg)

* $100,000 $100,000? * *

CryptoCon

* $130,000 * * *

CoinShare Head of Research

* $141,000 (if ETF approved) * * *

Cathie Wood (Ark Invest)

* * $258,500 - $1,480,000 (avg. $682,800) * *

Tim Draper (Venture Capitalist)

* $87,125 * * *

* Price prediction not provided from this source for this year

 

BTC 2024 outlook

Aside from the halving event, the most relevant factors affecting the price of bitcoin in 2024 are the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the state of the US economy.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Currently, more than a dozen Bitcoin ETFs are pending regulatory clearance, with traders expecting the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the applications in early 2024. Among the applicants hoping for clearance in Q1 2024 are Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest.

Market analysts expect the SEC to simultaneously approve numerous ETFs between January and March of 2024 to encourage a healthier, more competitive market. Notably, these spot ETFs require the fund to hold actual bitcoin, distinguishing them from other ETF types that may rely on derivatives or financial instruments for exposure to the underlying asset. Given the scarcity of bitcoin on exchanges, the prospective approval of these ETFs could have a substantial impact on market demand.

The introduction of ETFs, according to Larry Fink, the current chair and CEO of BlackRock, contributes to the increasing perception of cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, as a "flight to quality." Historical precedent indicates that ETF debuts can be transformative for crypto markets, as evidenced by Gold's 250% rise following the adoption of its first ETF in 2004.

Part of the rise of bitcoin in 2023 can be attributable to investors awaiting ETF approval. While institutional money has yet to fully engage, institutional fear of missing out (FOMO) might lead to extreme market volatility. This volatility might create a risky trading environment, inflating a bubble and reaching an all-time high (ATH) before the expected November date, in contrast to past cycles, which took 23 to 26 months from their cycle low.

Looking ahead, institutional investors, such as pension funds, hedge funds, and life insurance firms, are anticipated to play an important role in bitcoin's long-term stability. Once these institutions begin allocating funds to bitcoin, their propensity to hold may establish a significant floor price for BTC, potentially driving its value exponentially higher. Nevertheless, it is possible that this process will not be fully realised for several years.

Moreover, market forecasts indicate that there is a likelihood that retail investors and money managers will significantly augment their bitcoin holdings, with 401(k) and IRA contributions potentially increasing by 5–10%. Even a small allocation of 5% of the multi-trillion-dollar total could cause significant price movement.

The state of the US economy

Recent US indicators have presented a nuanced picture of the economy, which is showing signs of stabilising, with no significant increases in unemployment, suggesting a more robust job market than previously anticipated. Interest rates are steadying, with potential cuts anticipated in 2024. Inflation is cooling down but still above targeted levels, impacting consumer spending and economic policy.

The burden of funding the Ukraine conflict, however, underscores the importance of redirecting resources towards the domestic economy. These developments are critical as they influence electoral outcomes, with voters closely monitoring inflation's impact on purchasing power and housing affordability.

To address a potential US recession, policymakers may implement measures such as interest rate cuts and financial stimulus.

Despite economic upheavals, bitcoin has maintained stability, often appreciating during financial downturns. This resiliency underscores its role as an economic hedge, akin to gold, especially as governments address currency depreciation.

Bitcoin’s price is also buoyed by the prospects of bank failures and subsequent bailouts, along with the continual rise in national debt.

Finally, banks diversifying into bitcoin could boost its popularity, with Wall Street firms potentially playing a key role in crypto custody, thereby improving mainstream acceptance.

MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor, a prominent bitcoin advocate, highlights the need for major banks and Wall Street's involvement in the cryptocurrency industry, especially bitcoin, to navigate and mature within these broader economic conditions. Saylor believes that the shift to bitcoin, a universally recognised commodity without an issuer, will see a significant increase in value once managed by credible custodians.

However, bitcoin is also susceptible to market fluctuations, such as a crash in the broader stock market, bond yields, and the dollar's value. Consumer behaviour in the coming quarters will be a vital indicator of the economy's health and influence both the economic landscape and bitcoin's trajectory. Investors and traders must tread with caution.

 

BTC price forecasts 2024

The US Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut and draft legislation for regulatory clarity are anticipated to improve bitcoin's macroeconomic outlook in 2024. This could encourage investment in BTC and reduce uncertainty for investors. Major asset managers like Fidelity, WisdomTree, and BlackRock may offer spot Bitcoin ETFs, securing approval from the US government. The Bitcoin halving event could also impact Bitcoin's future, potentially breaking new all-time highs.

A Bitwise senior research analyst predicts a new all-time high of $80,000 in 2024, attributed to stablecoins settling more money than Visa, alongside ETF adoption and the halving mechanism.

Source

According to JP Morgan, the market excitement surrounding ETF decisions has already been priced in without substantial inflows, as observed in countries like Canada after the launch of similar ETFs.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes reiterates his long-standing $1 million BTC price prediction, citing macroeconomic pressures eroding national currency values.

Source

Coincodex predicts bitcoin's price to range between $29,564 and $100,732, projecting a 134.33% increase and a $100,732 value if it reaches the higher 2024 target.

BitQuant forecasts BTC/USD surpassing $69,000 before April 2024, leveraging Elliott Wave charting and comparing bitcoin's behaviour in previous cycles to predict an ATH and a $250,000 post-halving target.

Source

VanEck analysts anticipate bitcoin to rise above $48,000 post-halving, climbing to an all-time high of up to $160,000 in an anticipated US election-year surge.

Source

CoinPedia suggests a potential average prediction of $81,008.

Robert Kiyosaki, the businessman and author best known for his book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," which focuses on financial literacy and wealth-building strategies, predicts bitcoin will reach $120,000 by 2024.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back foresees bitcoin hitting an all-time high of over $100,000 in 2024.

Source

Techopedia predicts bitcoin's new ATH at $80,000 in 2024, suggesting a possible low of $30,000 and an average price of $65,000 for the year.

Standard Chartered revises its bitcoin price prediction to $120,000 by 2024, attributing bitcoin's resurgence and potential miner hoarding due to increased profitability per BTC mined.

Source

Source

Source

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model forecasts a price of $184,500 by the end of 2024. Created by an anonymous Dutch investor and quantitative analyst known as PlanB, S2F is a predictive method for bitcoin's price, correlating the available supply of bitcoins to their annual production. The higher the S2F ratio, the lower the incoming supply, leading to a forecasted increase in bitcoin's price. As the number of new bitcoins mined decreases over time, this model suggests that bitcoin's price will rise. The model’s creator predicts the price to hit $55,000 in 2024 near the halving.

Source

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a logarithmic valuation model indicating market sentiments, projects a range of future bitcoin prices with corresponding averages for each year. For 2024, it anticipates a range between $20,060 and $331,580, averaging at $175,820. In 2025, the range widens to $28,630 - $440,730, with an average of $234,680. The chart's most significant projection is for 2030, foreseeing a vast range from $127,140 up to an impressive $1,467,000, averaging at $797,070. This model helps investors gauge potential investment moments by aligning price movements with various sentiment-driven colour bands.

Source

Conclusion

The predictions vary widely, ranging from $29,564 to as high as $184,500. A conservative estimate based on a blend of these predictions might suggest a figure around $80,000 to $120,000 due to several experts and models converging around this range.

 

BTC price forecasts 2025

By 2025, the global economy is projected to improve, resulting in lower interest rates and increased investor confidence in cryptocurrency. Experts also anticipate that the market will experience regulatory certainty and economic stability in 2025. Higher regulations could encourage institutional funds to invest in bitcoin, potentially unlocking trillions of dollars in retirement funds. However, the bitcoin price typically halves within a year of highs, with up to 75% of gains wiped out within two years.

Coincodex predicts bitcoin's 2025 price range between $59,986 and $177,384, projecting a potential 312.90% increase.

Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence predicts bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of 2025, expecting a flourishing cryptocurrency market.

Source

Cointelegraph cites various forecasting tools targeting around $130,000 per bitcoin, including CryptoCon's model, which sees a possibility of six-figure BTC within two years. This concept is tied to halving events, expecting the next peak around four years after the previous significant move.

Source

The Stock-to-Flow model confidently forecasts bitcoin to exceed $200,000 by 2025, with an anticipated acceleration in price starting in 2024.

CoinPedia forecasts a bullish trend for bitcoin in 2025, projecting a high of $140,449, a low of $61,357, and an average price of $95,903 based on potential global adoption and Bitcoin-related financial services.

Source

Another prediction from Techopedia anticipates bitcoin's 2025 range between lows of $21,500 and highs of $98,000, with an average price of $50,000 while aiming to surpass the psychological milestone of $100,000.

CoinShares' Head of Research predicts bitcoin will reach $141,000 in 2025 if a bitcoin ETF is approved in the USA.

These predictions largely converge around the six-figure mark, ranging from $59,986 to over $200,000. A more moderate estimate might land around $100,000 to $130,000 considering multiple predictions centering around this range. This convergence suggests a potential consensus among various models and analysts for bitcoin's value by 2025.

 

BTC price forecasts 2030

By 2030, the expected growth in Bitcoin's value, potentially influenced by the widespread introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), coincides with its progression into the cycle between the 5th and 6th halving. This event in 2028 could signal the end of a bear market and the start of a bull market, impacting both price predictions and availability.

Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) envisions three potential price targets for bitcoin in 2030: The bear case suggests $258,500 (515% upside), the base case proposes $682,800 (1,525% upside), and the bull case anticipates $1.48 million (3,425% upside), based on assumptions involving institutional allocation, S&P 500 company cash holdings, and bitcoin's comparison to gold.

Source

Source

Mike McGlone, senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts bitcoin could hit $100,000 by 2030. He cites increasing demand and BTC scarcity as factors driving the price higher.

Source

Coincodex predicts a range for bitcoin in 2030 between $138,583 and $267,124, indicating a potential gain of 522.25% to reach the upper target.

Coinpedia expects bitcoin to achieve an all-time high in 2030, forecasting a range between $277,751 and $347,783, with an average price of $312,767.

Source

Techopedia anticipates a steadier bitcoin price in 2030, with a range between $95,000 and $120,000 and an average price of $110,000.

The predictions for bitcoin's price in 2030 exhibit a wide range, from $95,000 to as high as $1.48 million. However, there's some convergence around the six-figure mark, with predictions clustering between $138,583 and $347,783. Considering multiple sources, a conservative estimate might suggest a range between $100,000 and $350,000, given the various models and assumptions made by different analysts and firms.

 

BTC price forecasts 2040

Experts anticipate a bullish year in 2040, as it marks the 8th halving event. By then, 99.8% of all bitcoins will already be in circulation.

The prediction for bitcoin's price in 2040, as per Coincodex, involves projecting the cryptocurrency's average yearly rate of return over the past five years, roughly 22%, onto future price movements. This projection suggests a potential increase to $1,510,000 by 2040.

 

BTC price forecasts 2050

Forecasting the price of BTC in 2050 is highly speculative due to its distant timeframe. Since it falls between the 10th and 11th halvings, some anticipate this juncture could signify the conclusion of a bear market and the start of a bull market. However, due to the extreme distance, there's limited credibility in making reliable predictions, given the uncertainties and variables spanning such a long period.

Source

 

Conclusion

Experts anticipate that the cryptocurrency market will experience a transformative period during the upcoming bitcoin bull run, driven by factors like halving events, blockchain advancements, institutional adoption, and mainstream digital currency acceptance.

However, the market is volatile and unpredictable, with external factors like regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and technological developments impacting market dynamics. The stability of major cryptocurrency entities like Tether and Binance is a particular risk factor, as their collapse could significantly affect bitcoin's value.

Despite the promising prospects, investors and market participants should exercise caution and due diligence, staying informed about both potential upsides and vulnerabilities in this dynamic space. A balance of optimism and realistic risk assessment is crucial for navigating the future of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

 

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References to forecasts and past performance are not reliable indicators of future results.

The images shown are for illustration purposes only. Data is sourced from third-party providers.

This information is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be financial product advice or any investment recommendation. It is not to be construed as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product, or instrument; or to participate in any trading strategy. It has been prepared without taking your objectives, financial situation and needs into account. Axi makes no representation and assumes no liability with regard to the accuracy and completeness of the content in this publication. Readers should seek their own advice.



Alex Macris

Alex Macris

With a background spanning forex, stocks, and crypto, Alex has contributed financial and stock exchange reports to leading publications and news agencies. Beyond financial markets, he honed his skills by researching and editing international agreements and state reports and producing multimedia resources for diverse brands and organisations.

In addition to written content, Alex, who is fluent in English, French, and Greek, brings extensive experience and passion for audio. His portfolio showcases a versatile skill set encompassing podcast production, educational materials, and advertisements. A team player and lifelong learner, he maintains a balanced perspective on both the big picture and the finer details.

Find him on: LinkedIn


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