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Weekly Outlook: Can Crude Oil Keep The Momentum Going + What Gold Traders Will Be Watching

Market Analysis /
25 Feb 2019

USOIL

Fundamentals:

* Renewed optimism about the on-going trade talks between the US and China have supported Oil prices

* The two nations are the largest oil consumers; a trade deal could help to ease concerns about a decrease in demand

* The rally in USOIL has also been fuelled by the OPEC output cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela

* OPEC members reduced their output as planned, and further cuts are possible

Techs:

* The negative RSI divergence on the H4 chart suggests that USOIL is showing first signs of weakness

* Key support to watch lies between $55.25 and $55.55 - which acted as major support/resistance several times in the past

* Oil bulls need that level to hold, or a deeper correction could follow

* Overall uptrend remains intact however, and the daily RSI indicates there might be more room to the upside

USOIL (H4)
USOIL (H4)
USOIL (Daily)
USOIL (Daily)

Key Events This Week:

* TUESDAY - API Weekly Crude Stock Data

* WEDNESDAY - US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

* FRIDAY - Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

GOLD

Fundamentals:

* Demand for the precious metal has declined slightly following an increase risk appetite and the recovery in equity markets

* However, on-going Dollar weakness continues to support XAU/USD

* Gold traders will be focused on the speech by Fed Chair Powell, as well as three other FOMC members

* A further decline in rate expectations could spark fresh demand for Gold

Techs:

* The uptrend is stable, although the metal has been struggling slightly after the clear rejection at $1350 resistance

* Gold bulls remain in control as long as the price remains above the crucial support level at $1300

* The trendline from the November ´18 low is also worth keeping an eye on

* Daily RSI suggests XAU/USD not yet in overbought territory

XAUUSD
XAUUSD

Key Events This Week:

* TUESDAY - Fed Chair Powell speaks

* WEDNESDAY - US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell speaks

* THURSDAY - US GDP & Initial Jobless Claims, FOMC Members Bostic, Harker and Kaplan speak

* FRIDAY - US ISM Manufacturing Index

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