Wall Street returns after is long weekend break and futures markets show that the downbeat mood continues to prevail. However, there has been something of a bounce back in the last couple of hours, suggesting that traders aren’t ready to rush for the exits just yet. Christine Lagarde’s assessment of global economies delivered in Davos yesterday certainly had a theme of the glass being half full and talk of recession is being circumvented, although with the US/China trade spat seen as a driving force in the slow down and hopes of a sweeping resolution to the issue fading, questions must be asked as to whether the optimism is misplaced.
The US government shut down shows no signs of concluding either, again adding to the air of caution as 800,000 Federal workers are facing another missed pay cheque. With this disruption impacting the wider economy too, again there’s a need for caution as to upside potential for stocks. Financial companies are set to dominate in terms of earnings news today, but Johnson & Johnson, United Technologies and Haliburton are also all set to publish numbers before the opening bell. Again this could provide some insight into the fallout from the current geopolitical situation and in turn offer wider direction for the market.
Ahead of the open we’re calling the DOW down 146 from Friday’s close at 24560 and the S&P down 16 at 2655.
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Ongoing rate curve repricing and risk asset reaction perfectly illustrate how worryingly reliant investors have become on easy money policies