Wall Street tumbled into the weekend break amidst a raft of concerns ranging from the stock specific level through to the impact the ongoing transpacific trade war is having on the health of the Chinese economy. Index futures may be predicting a modest bounce back at the open, but the Asian session has been far from inspiring and attention seems set to remain focused very much on that final Federal Reserve meeting of the year. The expectation that another rate hike will be seen has increased to almost 80%, although it’s going to be the accompanying tone of comments over the outlook for 2019 that stands to provide the greatest direction.
With risk aversion mounting elsewhere, the US Dollar is finding itself in high demand and this too will serve to keep a lid on upside for stocks on Wall Street. The Empire Manufacturing print for December is due for release before the opening bell and some marked contraction is expected here. Although it’s seen as a low level reading, the absence of other data points plus the fact volumes are tailing off as we move into the weekend break could again lead to some exaggerated volatility here in the short term.
Ahead of the open, we’re calling the DOW up 54 at 24155 and the S&P up 5 at 2605.
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Two-year yields have covered their prior six-month range in the last week alone – and whether or not this move is sustainable matters a lot