Stuck in a range the Aussie dollar has a huge week ahead of it

Market Analysis /
Greg McKenna / 04 Jun 2018

The Aussie dollar traded down to around 0.7512 on Friday and is back up at 0.7560 this morning. And, goodness me it could be a big week for the Aussie. One which either reinforces the 0.7410/0.7610 range or one that sees it break wide open. 

I say that because of the solid local and global data flow we will see this week here at home and abroad.  

Today we get a couple of partials - company profits and wholesale inventories - which feed into Q1 GDP to be released Wednesday. We also get HIA new home sales and ANZ job ads. 

Yet for me at least, the big one for forex traders is likely to be retail sales. 

That's because at present expectations (according to the Reuters survey) are for a 0.8% quarterly growth rate which would see a 2.7% year on year figure. So not bad quarterly growth. And likely baked into the cake. 

But if there is a risk to the Australian economy it is in the household and consumer sectors and we get a fresh read on that from the April retail sales report which the Reuters survey says the market has forecast at a rise of just 0.2%. 

What's important here is that we have seen some volatility over recent months in retail sales. And what worries many is that this volatility and deceleration in the rate of growth of retail sales may reflect the troubles that ail households - high debt, low wages growth, and falling house prices. 

We have two competing leads on sales today, the NAB's cashless sales looks for a negative print while the CBAs's BSI is more optimistic. We'll know at 11.30am this morning. 

What's really important about this is that is retail sales do point to a household slowdown it might precipitate the RBA changing its language, its guidance. Coming just a month after the upbeat SoMP it might be a little optimistic of the rate cut brigade to expect a change in the governor's statement tomorrow on the back of a weak retail print today. 

But the cries will grow. 

Of course, a strong retail sales print with solid partials for GDP will assuage many fears and get traders focussed on a solid GDP print and thus the topside of this range.  

Like central bankers right now, Aussie dollar traders are very data dependent. 

To the charts then and I can probably ignore the uptrend channel I've drawn on the daily chart in favour of a simple range between 0.7410/0.7610. I must admit the balance of probabilities when I look at the set up on this chart is for a break and run above 0.7610/12. 

That would open up 0.7660. But most likely a run toward 78 cents. On the downside support is in the 0.7510/20 region and below that 0.7470/75. 

Here's the daily chart. 

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand

Have a great day's trading.

Greg McKenna

Chief Market Strategist

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