Crude Oil Today - Where have all the bears gone?

Market Analysis /
Greg McKenna / 28 Aug 2018

Welcome to Crude Oil Today, my brief look at what's happening in oil markets and what it might mean for prices. 

As ever, feedback welcome

QUICK SUMMARY

The weaker USD helped commodities in general rally over the past 24 hours and that means Oil is higher again. WTi took out resistance and is up 0.3% at $69.04 while Brent is 0.75% to the good at $76.46. 

BIGGER PICTURE

Oil is a little higher and has consolidated the break of technical resistance last week. Data overnight suggested that OPEC produced 9% less than agreed last month which – even though it’s down from 47% less at the peak - seems to have combined with enduring worries about Iran to offset Genscape’s report that Cushing inventories rose 764,800 barrels last week. Indeed Iran is pressuring Europe to counter US sanctions still and Emmanuel Macron did hit out at US policy last night after the Turkish Finance minister was in town. But Europe going a completely different way to the US seems remote to me – even though the EU did give $28 million cash to Tehran last week. Something the US was not very happy with.

And an interesting poll held by @anasalhajji on Twitter which shows – as he says  – the absence of bears. A little more than 1400 folks participated, so it is something worth noting. It highlights the recent buy the dip and I guess accords with the CFTC positioning which shows spec accounts remain very long of crude in the US.

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand

To the chart then and it’s Brent today I want to look at. The rally is looking a little extended here as it’s at the upper edge of the Bollinger Band and closing in on the top of the current down channel. So I’m expecting resistance to begin to show up soon – perhaps above $77???

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand

Please note I talk about both Brent and WTI each day in my Markets Video.

DATA:

Data wise today, there is close to nothing of note. South Korean consumer confidence is out in our time zone then its Euro Area loan and M3 growth this afternoon before we get the goods trade balance for the US along with wholesale inventories, the Case Shiller house price data, Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

Have a great day's trading.

Greg McKenna

Chief Market Strategist

gregmckenna.com.au

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