Home / Blog / Market Analysis / Australia Today - The Aussie dollar's lag is interesting, as is the SPI move overnight

Australia Today - The Aussie dollar's lag is interesting, as is the SPI move overnight

Market Analysis /
Greg McKenna / 29 Aug 2018

Welcome to my Australia Today column where I'll have a look at some economics, the Aussie dollar, and the outlook for the ASX200 and SPI. 

As every Feedback is welcome


The Aussie followed the Euro’s moves directionally over the past 24 to 48 hours but it has certainly lagged overnight. The 0.2% fall to 0.7335 stands in contrast to the Euro’s move and those of the CAD and Kiwi.

As for the actual reason I’m not really sure to be frank. That is other than there seems to be residual resistance in the 0.7350/60 region right now. Other than that copper was a little stronger, risk appetite is doing okay.

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand

Perhaps it’s the rise in US rates and the mild increase in the AUDUSD 2 year spread is a bit of a handbrake. Certainly, it’s a primary input into my valuation metrics for the AUDUSD.

Looking at the charts then and the 4-hour speaks for itself and looks like it is rolling over 0.7320 looks like a key level that must hold.   

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand


It’s been a good 24 hours for mining shares, and it was a good day for the ASX yesterday. The 36 point gain was a smidge less than my guess on Sky yesterday morning of a 40 point gain. But a good day nonetheless. Today however I’m not so sure of positivity. SPI traders have only knocked 6 points off prices but the lack of action and momentum in the US and the drift in China is something to watch as the day progresses.

The charts suggest 6,244 needs to hold for the SPI if a trip back toward Monday’s low isn’t on the cards. Here’s the daly for a bigger picture view.

Click on me, I'll expand
Click on me, I'll expand


Via ANZ and Business Insider There’s something not adding up about the Australian economy. The weekly consumer confidence ticked up yesterday but David Plank, ANZs chief economist for Australia said, “Despite the tick up in headline confidence, households remain pessimistic about purchasing large household items” with the index (see chart below) now well under the long run average.  

Plank said that’s because “Sluggish wage growth, high levels of debt and decreasing house prices are likely constraining sentiment in this regard”. And that folks, is pretty much what I’ve been writing about for a long time. It’s remarkable the domestic consumer is holding up so well given the headwinds. But this is certainly something to watch.

Source: Business Insider
Source: Business Insider


On the day we get HIA new home sales in Australia, consumer confidence in Japan, Singapore PPI, export and import prices, and then this afternoon we get the Gfk consumer confidence data from Germany. House prices are out in the UK, GDP in France as well as mortgage applications in the US. That’s all before the big one in the US tonight which is the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP. We also see PCE prices, pending home sales, and the EIA crude and other inventory data.

Have a great day's trading.

Greg McKenna

Chief Market Strategist


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